LONG-TERM NETWORK GROWTH

Network Growth
& Regional Backbone

From one tower to a regional backbone. Dark fiber upgrade path, content caching, peering strategy, technology migration, and multi-site expansion modeling.

The 5-year plan: 10G to 100G on the same fiber. 500 subs to 8,000+. Mendota to the Quad Cities.

10G→100G
Same Dark Fiber
~40%
Traffic Cached Free
7 Sites
Regional Backbone
750K+
Population Reach
6 GHz
Next-Gen Migration
AI-Generated Planning Framework: This is a theoretical growth model for educational and planning purposes. Subscriber projections, revenue estimates, and expansion timelines are illustrative. Real-world outcomes depend on market conditions, competition, regulatory environment, and execution quality.

Bandwidth Growth & Fiber Planning

Model subscriber growth, usage trends, and fiber upgrade timing. Toggle content caches to see how free caching appliances extend your backhaul capacity by 30-40%.

Dark fiber is the only backhaul strategy where your capacity grows without your monthly cost changing. Upgrade the light, not the glass.

Dark Fiber Upgrade Path

One fiber pair. Four generations of optics. Same glass from 2026 to 2030+. You never outgrow the fiber — you just upgrade the light.

2026
10G
SFP+ 10GBASE-LR (1310nm)
Optics cost: $300 (pair)

Launch day. Standard 10G optics, widely available, $150/each.

2027
25G
SFP28 25GBASE-LR
Optics cost: $500 (pair)

Drop-in upgrade. Same fiber pair, swap optics + upgrade switch ports to SFP28.

2028
100G
QSFP28 100G-LR4 or Coherent ZR
Optics cost: $3,000 (pair)

Same dark fiber. Coherent optics push 100G over single fiber pair. Need QSFP28 router ports.

2030
400G
QSFP-DD 400G ZR+
Optics cost: $8,000 (pair)

Endgame on single fiber pair. DWDM can push multiple 400G channels = terabits on one strand.

Key insight: Going from 10G to 100G on dark fiber costs ~$3,000 in optics. The same upgrade on lit service means renegotiating a contract at 5-10x the monthly cost. Dark fiber pays for itself within the first upgrade cycle.

Growth Projection Parameters

300
40%
28%
Industry avg: 25-30%
3
3.5x
Evening prime time

5-Year Bandwidth Projection

YearSubscribersAvg UsagePeak DemandAfter CachingFiber TierHeadroomStatus
20263003 Mbps3.2 Gbps2.1 Gbps10G
79%
Comfortable
20274203.8 Mbps5.6 Gbps3.8 Gbps25G
85%
Comfortable
20285884.9 Mbps10.1 Gbps6.9 Gbps100G
93%
Comfortable
20298236.3 Mbps18.1 Gbps12.3 Gbps100G
88%
Comfortable
20301,1528.1 Mbps32.5 Gbps22.1 Gbps400G
94%
Comfortable
20311,61310.3 Mbps58.2 Gbps39.6 Gbps400G
90%
Comfortable
Peak demand vs. fiber capacity (with caching)
2026
2.1G demand10G capacity
300 subs
2027
3.8G demand25G capacity
420 subs
2028
6.9G demand100G capacity
588 subs
2029
12.3G demand100G capacity
823 subs
2030
22.1G demand400G capacity
1152 subs
2031
39.6G demand400G capacity
1613 subs

Content Caching Layer

Cache popular content locally. Reduces transit costs and backhaul demand by 32%.

32%
traffic saved
Netflix Open Connect-18% traffic
Free (Netflix provides hardware)
Requirements: ~1,000+ subs, rack space, power, 10G port
Netflix ships you an appliance pre-loaded with their content library. Serves streams locally instead of pulling from the internet. Handles ~15-20% of all internet traffic.
Google Global Cache (GGC)-14% traffic
Free (Google provides hardware)
Requirements: ~500+ subs, rack space, power, 10G port
Caches YouTube, Google Play, Android updates, Chrome downloads locally. YouTube alone is 10-15% of traffic. Google is aggressive about deploying these.
Akamai / Cloudflare Cache-8% traffic
Free-low cost (peering agreement)
Steam/Valve Cache-3% traffic
Free (community program)
Microsoft Connected Cache-5% traffic
Free
Impact: With 32% caching, a 10G link effectively becomes 15G of equivalent capacity. Netflix + Google alone eliminate ~30% of transit traffic and they provide the hardware for free.

Peering & Internet Exchange

Peering at an Internet Exchange reduces transit costs and improves latency by connecting directly to content providers instead of routing through a transit middleman. The DeKalb PtP link is your path to Chicago's peering ecosystem.

Chicago IX (CHI-IX)$500-1,000/mo port fee + cross-connect
Location: 350 E Cermak, Chicago
Reach via: DeKalb PtP → Chicago fiber
Benefit: Direct peering with major content providers, reduced transit costs
Equinix Chicago$1,500-3,000/mo (cabinet + cross-connects)
Location: 350 E Cermak, Chicago
Reach via: DeKalb PtP → Chicago fiber
Benefit: Private peering with Netflix, Google, AWS, Azure, Cloudflare
Hurricane Electric (HE)Free (tunnel) / $200/mo (direct)
Location: Distributed / tunnel
Reach via: Any internet connection
Benefit: Free IPv6 transit, BGP looking glass, route server
Path to Chicago IX: Mendota → 46km PtP → DeKalb → fiber to Chicago (113km) → 350 E Cermak (Equinix/CHI-IX). Once peered, Netflix, Google, Cloudflare, and AWS traffic comes direct — no transit provider markup.

Radio Technology Migration Path

Wireless technology moves fast. Plan for migration to next-gen platforms without disrupting existing subscribers.

2026— Launch
Tarana G1
5 GHz
Premium tier
Deploy
Cambium ePMP 4500
5 GHz
Standard tier
Deploy
Ubiquiti LTU Rocket
5 GHz
Basic tier
Deploy
2027— 6 GHz Migration
Cambium ePMP 4600
6 GHz AFC
Replace Standard tier
Upgrade
MikroTik 60G mesh
60 GHz
In-town gigabit tier
New tier
Wi-Fi 7 outdoor APs
6 GHz
Evaluate for CPE cost reduction
Pilot
2028-29— Next-Gen
Tarana G2 (expected)
5/6 GHz
Premium tier upgrade
Evaluate
Wi-Fi 7 PtMP
6 GHz (320 MHz)
High-capacity sectors
Evaluate
5G FWA (CBRS)
3.5 GHz
If spectrum cost drops
Watch
2030+— Future
6G R&D
Sub-THz
Research phase
Monitor
LEO satellite (Starlink)
Ku/Ka
Rural backup / gap fill
Partner?
Free-space optical
Optical
Multi-Gbps PtP in clear weather
Emerging

5-Year Financial Model

Projected P&L based on subscriber growth, ARPU trends, and operational costs. Assumes mixed-architecture WISP with tower carrier leases.

YearSubscribersISP RevenueCarrier LeasesTotal RevenueOpExNet IncomeMargin
2026300$270K$96K$366K$116K$250K68%
2027420$368K$144K$512K$130K$382K75%
2028588$501K$192K$693K$194K$499K72%
2029823$681K$240K$921K$221K$700K76%
20301,152$926K$288K$1214K$310K$904K74%
20311,613$1258K$336K$1594K$382K$1212K76%

Monthly OpEx Breakdown (Year 1)

Fiber lease$2,500/mo
Dark fiber pair
IP transit (2G)$600/mo
After caching savings
Staff (0.5 FTE)$3,750/mo
NOC/field tech
Tower power$1,200/mo
Radios + shelter
Insurance$500/mo
Tower + E&O
Maintenance$1,000/mo
Truck rolls, spares
Total monthly OpEx (Year 1):~$9,550/mo

CapEx & Break-Even

Total CapEx (Mendota only)
~$750K – $1.1M
Tower (build): $250-400K
Fiber construction: $150-300K
Engineering & permits: $15-25K
Tower crew (rigging): $15-35K
Radio equipment: $25K
Optical transport: $8-25K
CPE (504 subs): $131K
Monthly cash flow at 500 subs
+$36K/mo
ISP $37.5K + carrier leases $8K - OpEx $9.5K
Break-even (CapEx recovery)
~24-30 months
$850K midpoint / $36K = ~24 months. Carrier leases cover OpEx so ISP revenue goes straight to payback.

Regional Backbone Expansion

Each PtP relay destination becomes its own tower site with local WISP coverage and carrier lease revenue. Toggle sites to model different expansion scenarios and see aggregate revenue, backhaul demand, and payback periods.

The Mendota hub connects to 750,000+ people across northern Illinois. Every relay site replicates the model: tower + WISP + carrier leases.

Regional Backbone Network

                                Rockford (150K pop)
                                [ ------ ]
                                     |
                                     | 80km PtP
                                     |
       Quad Cities (380K)       MENDOTA HUB            DeKalb (45K)
       [ ------ ]            [ ORIGIN ]            [ ACTIVE ]
            |                    /    |    \                  |
            | via Sterling      /     |     \     46km PtP   |
            |                  /      |      \               |
       Sterling (22K)         /       |       \         Chicago Peering
       [ ACTIVE ]        /        |        \        (via fiber)
            53km PtP         /         |         \
                            /          |          \
                     Ottawa (19K)      |
                     [ ------ ]     |
                      30km PtP         |
                                       | 23km PtP
                                       |
                                  LaSalle-Peru (20K)
                                  [ ACTIVE ]
                                       |
                                       | via relay
                                       |
                                  Peoria (115K)
                                  [ ------ ]

Relay Sites — Toggle to Model Expansion

LaSalle-Peru
Phase 1 (2026)
Pop: 20,000
Distance: 23 km S
Potential subs: 400
Tower cost: $200K
ISP rev: $28,000/mo
Carrier lease: $5,000/mo

First relay. Illinois Valley market. Fiber POP backup for Mendota. Immediate revenue.

Tiers to deploy:
Cambium 6 GHzLTU 5 GHzMikroTik 60G (downtown)
Competition: Comcast, AT&T DSL, T-Mobile Home Internet
Market gap: No fiber ISP. Comcast monopoly pricing. DSL max 25 Mbps. We offer 50-200 Mbps at lower cost.
DeKalb
Phase 2 (2027)
Pop: 45,000
Distance: 46 km NE
Potential subs: 800
Tower cost: $250K
ISP rev: $60,000/mo
Carrier lease: $6,000/mo

NIU campus = student market. Gateway to Chicago peering. High sub density.

Tiers to deploy:
Tarana G1Cambium 6 GHzCBRSMikroTik 60G (campus area)
Competition: Comcast, Sparklight (Cable One), NIU campus WiFi
Market gap: Student housing off-campus underserved. Sparklight speeds are poor. We target 100-200 Mbps for students.
Sterling-Rock Falls
Phase 2 (2027)
Pop: 22,000
Distance: 53 km W
Potential subs: 400
Tower cost: $200K
ISP rev: $26,000/mo
Carrier lease: $4,000/mo

Western expansion. Bridge to Quad Cities. Underserved market.

Tiers to deploy:
Cambium 6 GHzLTU 5 GHz
Competition: Comcast, Lumen DSL
Market gap: Rural areas around Sterling have no broadband options. Lumen DSL maxes at 10 Mbps.
Rockford
Phase 3 (2028)
Pop: 150,000
Distance: 80 km N
Potential subs: 2,000
Tower cost: $350K
ISP rev: $160,000/mo
Carrier lease: $8,000/mo

Largest market in range. Metro area with multiple tower opportunities. Competitive market.

Ottawa
Phase 2 (2027)
Pop: 19,000
Distance: 30 km SE
Potential subs: 350
Tower cost: $180K
ISP rev: $22,750/mo
Carrier lease: $4,000/mo

Close to LaSalle-Peru. Can share backhaul. Starved Rock tourism area.

Quad Cities (via Sterling)
Phase 3 (2029)
Pop: 380,000
Distance: 110 km W
Potential subs: 3,000
Tower cost: $400K
ISP rev: $240,000/mo
Carrier lease: $10,000/mo

Massive metro market. Reached via Sterling relay. Mississippi River crossing complicates links.

Peoria (via LaSalle)
Phase 3 (2029)
Pop: 115,000
Distance: 100 km SW
Potential subs: 1,500
Tower cost: $300K
ISP rev: $112,500/mo
Carrier lease: $7,000/mo

Reached via LaSalle-Peru relay. Large metro. Bradley University market.

Total Subscribers
2,100
Mendota (500) + 3 relay sites
Monthly Revenue
$174,500
ISP: $151,500 + Carrier: $23,000
Annual Revenue
$2.1M
$2,094,000/yr
Total CapEx
$1.1M
Mendota ($400K) + relays ($650K)
Payback Period
0.5 years
At full projected subscriber counts

Phased Deployment Timeline

Phase 1: 2026LaSalle-Peru
+400 subs
+$33,000/mo
CapEx: $200,000
Annual revenue: $396,000/yr
Phase payback: 0.5 years
Phase 2: 2027DeKalb, Sterling-Rock Falls
+1,200 subs
+$96,000/mo
CapEx: $450,000
Annual revenue: $1,152,000/yr
Phase payback: 0.4 years

Backhaul Aggregation at Mendota Hub

All relay sites feed traffic back through Mendota. As the network grows, the hub backhaul requirement grows with it. This is why dark fiber with upgradeable optics is critical.

Relay backhaul aggregate
2.3 Gbps
from 3 relay sites
+ Mendota local demand
~2-3 Gbps
500 local subs at peak
Total hub requirement
4.8 Gbps
Within 10G capacity

Population Reach

94,300
people in serviceable area
Serviceable population by phase
7.3K
20K
45K
22K
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Sources: Fiber upgrade specifications based on IEEE 802.3 standards. Content caching programs: Netflix Open Connect | Google Peering. Internet exchange: CHI-IX Chicago. Usage growth trends from Sandvine Global Internet Phenomena Report. Equipment from Cambium Networks | Tarana Wireless. Population data from U.S. Census Bureau.